Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-30 184.038361 223.710043 273.026161 340.013034 430.522911 5.514768e+02 7.306016e+02
2025-04-06 140.602051 186.849077 251.999459 354.523529 520.137924 7.943654e+02 1.327322e+03
2025-04-13 111.822608 157.346097 226.995829 348.485629 572.869736 1.015625e+03 2.121137e+03
2025-04-20 100.230242 148.486512 228.152974 381.637428 706.833692 1.486639e+03 4.158204e+03
2025-04-27 90.947744 140.486719 227.593144 410.472272 849.872530 2.129636e+03 8.459347e+03
2025-05-04 82.922880 132.578888 224.630657 432.889410 994.398331 2.979708e+03 1.818353e+04
2025-05-11 75.573757 124.279693 218.619513 446.161622 1126.579215 4.033519e+03 4.170603e+04
2025-05-18 68.772028 115.711474 209.970986 449.951031 1236.123987 5.260263e+03 1.045649e+05
2025-05-25 62.221939 106.551889 198.106663 441.443209 1300.911251 6.465989e+03 2.799275e+05
2025-06-01 56.387064 97.955852 185.810838 427.859846 1340.048822 7.695095e+03 9.140010e+05
2025-06-08 51.370853 90.346761 174.378370 413.304340 1367.852413 9.029778e+03 4.909606e+06
2025-06-15 50.446872 90.977928 182.022441 458.650256 1714.762090 1.594233e+04 NaN
2025-06-22 47.282919 86.645682 177.431443 465.614279 1895.277877 2.313805e+04 NaN
2025-06-29 45.080944 84.120731 176.922942 486.965758 2200.335267 3.939391e+04 NaN
2025-07-06 41.860991 78.938355 168.647842 477.636391 2303.145755 5.413202e+04 NaN
2025-07-13 41.169512 79.363636 175.293740 528.191434 2953.386969 1.476128e+05 NaN
2025-07-20 40.181444 78.960374 179.622450 572.707125 3699.256133 5.137068e+05 NaN
2025-07-27 38.912424 77.718359 181.327564 607.644065 4492.756375 2.765877e+06 NaN
2025-08-03 37.355076 75.581602 179.985469 628.459792 5228.346032 4.051427e+07 NaN
2025-08-10 35.584890 72.717207 175.919072 634.420518 5815.691637 NaN NaN
2025-08-17 33.563988 69.019138 168.660061 621.048164 6074.218794 NaN NaN
2025-08-24 31.563892 65.195792 160.462916 599.779841 6152.774933 NaN NaN
2025-08-31 29.711013 61.593071 152.492430 577.102266 6163.239886 NaN NaN